Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton went deep again on Thursday afternoon, giving him 47 homers on the year. Here’s the blast to center: 

Again, that gives Stanton 47 on the year. 

More impressive is his binge in July and August. Stanton now has 26 home runs in his last 43 games. He’s hit 14 in August and we still have a week left until the month ends. 

Stanton has been so hot that there’s been talk about how high he can get. Specifically, there is discussion about him possibly getting to 62 home runs, which would be the highest total ever outside of the so-called Steroid Era. Some people still believe Roger Maris’ 61 is the “true” home-run record in a single-season setting. 

As such, there’s been prop betting taking place on Stanton getting to 62 and SportsLine’s model shows that’s a bad bet. 

YES

300

25.0%

18.3%

-6.7%

NO

-450

81.8%

81.7%

-0.1%

There’s now an 18.3 percent chance Stanton gets to 62, according to the projection system. With the betting odds currently going for +300 on yes and -450 on no, one might be tempted to go with yes, but the odds say it’s just a wasted bet. 

Of course, what if Stanton keeps tearing things up like he has in the second half? 

His season long home run rate is 8.8 percent of his plate appearances. If he raises that to 9.1 percent, he’s now over 25 percent chances to reach 62. Since the break, though, he’s been hitting homers in 12.3 percent of his plate appearances. Should that rate continue, he has a 71 percent chance of reaching 62. 

It’s just that we know baseball has ebbs and flows and usually evens out. Hot streaks fade and a slump crushes Stanton’s chances here. 

The odds say to bet no, even if the yes bet is incredibly tempting.


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