The PGA’s second golf major of the year, the 2018 U.S. Open, starts on Thursday from Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in New York. Dustin Johnson, cut from this tournament last year, is the Vegas favorite at 10-1. Right behind him on the 2018 U.S. Open odds board are Rory McIlroy at 12-1 and Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler, and Justin Rose, who are all listed at 14-1. Last year’s winner, Brooks Koepka, is going off at 25-1. Many in the golf world will have their eyes on three-time U.S. Open champion Tiger Woods, who’s going off at 18-1, up from an open of 16-1.

Before you make any bets or enter a daily fantasy golf tournament on DraftKings or FanDuel, you’ll want to hear what the team at SportsLine has to say.

SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, nailed the 2018 Masters, predicting the career-defining victory for Patrick Reed entering the weekend. It also nailed the Masters and U.S. Open last year, calling wins for Sergio Garcia and Brooks Koepka entering the weekend. Then it was all over Jordan Spieth at the 2017 British Open from the start and called his third major victory with three rounds to play.

Now that the 118th U.S. Open field is taking shape, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

One huge surprise the model is calling for at the U.S. Open this year: Tiger Woods, one of the top Vegas favorites, makes a strong run, but falls just short of winning the title.

Woods, a 14-time major champion, won his last U.S. Open in 2008 at Torrey Pines. His last appearance at Shinnecock Hills was in 2004, where he finished 17th. However, Woods knows how to perform at the U.S Open. His 15-stroke win in 2000 at Pebble Beach remains the largest margin of victory in U.S. Open history.

Another surprise: Jason Day, whom Vegas views as a top contender, finishes outside the top 10. He’s somebody to completely steer clear of at the U.S. Open 2018.

Day is in the top 10 of the Official World Golf Rankings, but has failed to finish better than 20th in five of his last seven starts. He’s coming off a disappointing 44th place finish at the Memorial Tournament that saw him shoot 74 in his final two rounds.

Day’s 62.03 driving accuracy percentage could cause trouble at Shinnecock Hills, a place where accuracy off the tee is vital. He’s certainly capable of bouncing back on one of golf’s biggest stages, but there are far better values than the 16-1 U.S. Open odds Day is getting.

Also, the model says three golfers with odds of 20-1 or longer will make a deep run at the U.S Open title, including a monster long shot. Anyone who bets on these underdogs could hit it big.

So who will win the 2018 U.S. Open, and which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the updated odds below and find out by visiting SportsLine now to see the U.S. Open projected leaderboard from the model that’s nailed four of the last five majors heading into the weekend.

Dustin Johnson 10-1
Rory McIlroy 12-1
Justin Thomas 14-1
Rickie Fowler 14-1
Justin Rose 14-1
Jason Day 16-1
Jordan Spieth 16-1  
Tiger Woods 18-1
Jon Rahm 20-1
Hideki Matsuayama 25-1
Brooks Koepka 25-1
Patrick Reed 30-1
Tommy Fleetwood 30-1
Sergio Garcia 40-1
Paul Casey 40-1
Branden Grace 40-1
Bryson DeChambeau 40-1
Bubba Watson 50-1
Adam Scott 50-1
Marc Leishman 50-1
Alex Noren 50-1


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