We’re into the stretch drive of the 2017 season, and that means our focus is squarely on the various and sundry playoff races. 

Obviously, a glance at the standings page will give you an idea of where things stand when it comes to those coveted 10 postseason berths, but to peer a bit more deeply into these vital matters we’ll turn to our compadres over at  SportsLine  (@SportsLine on Twitter). Over there, they cook up projections and playoff percentages for each team and tell you what each team’s chances of winning the pennant and World Series are. It’s partly based on results to date, of course, but how each team projects the rest of the way at the roster level also plays a big role. 

So below you’ll see each team’s forecast regular-season record for 2017, forecast record for the remainder of the season, chances that they make the playoffs via division title or wild-card berth, and then the current chances that they win the pennant and World Series. Pretty much covers it, no? By the way, these numbers aren’t just plucked from thin air; they come to us via the SportsLine projection system. 

First, let’s jump into the AL:   

AMERICAN

LEAGUE

SEASON FORECAST

REST OF SEASON

MAKE PLAYOFFS

POSTSEASON SUCCESS

WINS

LOSS

WIN%

WINS

LOSS

WIN%

WIN DIV

PLAYOFF

ALCS ODDS

LCS%

WS ODDS

WS%

Houston Astros

97.4

64.6

60.1%

14.4

11.6

55.4%

94.5%

98.5%

12/5, 29.4%

29.23%

7/1, 12.5%

11.63%

Cleveland Indians

96.7

65.3

59.7%

16.7

9.3

64.4%

93.5%

98.5%

2/1, 33.3%

32.89%

5/1, 16.7%

16.17%

Boston Red Sox

92.5

69.5

57.1%

15.5

9.5

62.0%

67.4%

90.0%

12/5, 29.4%

20.73%

7/1, 12.5%

7.78%

New York Yankees

87.9

74.1

54.3%

14.9

11.1

57.4%

26.7%

66.0%

6/1, 14.3%

6.92%

14/1, 6.7%

2.57%

Minnesota Twins

85.1

76.9

52.5%

14.1

11.9

54.1%

5.5%

44.3%

20/1, 4.8%

2.90%

40/1, 2.4%

0.74%

Texas Rangers

82.3

79.7

50.8%

14.3

11.7

55.0%

2.2%

23.6%

100/1, 1%

2.43%

200/1, 0.5%

0.88%

Los Angeles Angels

82.2

79.8

50.7%

12.2

12.8

48.7%

2.0%

22.0%

20/1, 4.8%

1.61%

40/1, 2.4%

0.46%

Baltimore Orioles

81.4

80.6

50.3%

11.4

13.6

45.8%

4.2%

18.5%

40/1, 2.4%

1.10%

80/1, 1.2%

0.35%

Seattle Mariners

81.3

80.7

50.2%

12.3

12.7

49.1%

1.3%

16.7%

50/1, 2%

0.98%

100/1, 1%

0.37%

Kansas City Royals

80.2

81.8

49.5%

13.2

13.8

48.7%

1.0%

12.4%

50/1, 2%

0.68%

100/1, 1%

0.13%

Tampa Bay Rays

78.7

83.3

48.6%

10.7

13.3

44.5%

1.4%

7.7%

50/1, 2%

0.37%

100/1, 1%

0.14%

Toronto Blue Jays

74.6

87.4

46.1%

11.6

13.4

46.5%

0.2%

1.6%

2500/1, 0%

0.16%

5000/1, 0%

0.00%

Oakland Athletics

68.5

93.5

42.3%

10.5

15.5

40.3%

0.0%

0.1%

5000/1, 0%

0.00%

9999/1, 0%

0.00%

Detroit Tigers

67.5

94.5

41.6%

9.5

16.5

36.4%

0.0%

0.1%

1/0, 0%

0.00%

1/0, 0%

0.00%

Chicago White Sox

65.7

96.3

40.6%

11.7

15.3

43.3%

0.0%

0.1%

1/0, 0%

0.00%

1/0, 0%

0.00%

First off, here’s how SportsLine as of Monday projects the American League playoff bracket:  

  • Wild Card Game: Twins at Yankees
  • Divisional Series: Red Sox vs. Indians
  • Divisional Series: Wild-card winner vs. Astros

As you can see above, SportsLine now expects a tight race between the Astros and Indians for top overall seed in the AL. That’s big race, as there would seem to quite difference in squaring off against the dangerous Red Sox in the first round as opposed to a wild card team without its rotation lined up. Also note that the surging Indians now have the best World Series percentage of any AL squadron. Framed another way, Cleveland’s World Series chances have roughly doubled since last time. Elsewhere, the Rangers since last time out have improved their playoff odds significantly, and they’re now expected to be Minnesota’s stiffest challenge for that second wild-card berth. The Angels, though, are also right there. 

And now for the NL:   

NATIONAL

LEAGUE

SEASON FORECAST

REST OF SEASON

MAKE PLAYOFFS

POST-SEASON SUCCESS

WINS

LOSS

WIN%

WINS

LOSS

WIN%

WIN DIV

PLAYOFF

NLCS ODDS

LCS%

WS ODDS

WS%

Los Angeles Dodgers

108.3

53.7

66.9%

16.3

9.7

62.7%

96.9%

100.0%

5/8, 61.5%

46.56%

7/5, 41.7%

28.38%

Washington Nationals

99.0

63.1

61.1%

17.0

9.0

65.2%

99.4%

99.8%

3/1, 25%

25.13%

6/1, 14.3%

15.35%

Arizona Diamondbacks

93.9

68.2

57.9%

14.9

10.1

59.4%

3.1%

94.2%

10/1, 9.1%

9.01%

20/1, 4.8%

4.88%

Chicago Cubs

89.6

72.4

55.3%

14.6

11.4

56.3%

64.8%

78.2%

5/1, 16.7%

12.86%

10/1, 9.1%

7.65%

Milwaukee Brewers

84.8

77.2

52.3%

12.8

12.2

51.1%

20.9%

41.2%

20/1, 4.8%

2.18%

40/1, 2.4%

0.84%

Colorado Rockies

84.7

77.3

52.3%

12.7

13.3

48.9%

0.1%

40.1%

20/1, 4.8%

1.75%

40/1, 2.4%

0.71%

St Louis Cardinals

83.1

78.9

51.3%

14.1

11.9

54.2%

12.8%

29.6%

30/1, 3.2%

1.82%

60/1, 1.6%

0.73%

Miami Marlins

80.2

81.8

49.5%

13.2

12.8

50.6%

0.6%

11.8%

100/1, 1%

0.41%

200/1, 0.5%

0.14%

Pittsburgh Pirates

76.2

85.8

47.0%

11.2

13.8

44.8%

1.4%

3.9%

1000/1, 0.1%

0.26%

2000/1, 0%

0.08%

Atlanta Braves

72.4

89.6

44.7%

12.4

14.6

45.9%

0.0%

0.5%

5000/1, 0%

0.01%

9999/1, 0%

0.00%

San Diego Padres

71.4

90.6

44.1%

9.4

15.6

37.7%

0.0%

0.4%

5000/1, 0%

0.00%

9999/1, 0%

0.00%

New York Mets

69.4

92.7

42.8%

11.3

14.7

43.6%

0.0%

0.1%

1/0, 0%

0.01%

1/0, 0%

0.00%

Cincinnati Reds

68.6

93.4

42.4%

10.6

14.4

42.4%

0.0%

0.1%

1/0, 0%

0.00%

1/0, 0%

0.00%

San Francisco Giants

63.7

98.4

39.3%

9.7

13.3

42.0%

0.0%

0.1%

1/0, 0%

0.00%

1/0, 0%

0.00%

Philadelphia Phillies

63.0

99.0

38.9%

11.0

15.0

42.3%

0.0%

0.1%

1/0, 0%

0.00%

1/0, 0%

0.00%

So here’s the current projected NL playoff bracket:

  • Wild Card Game: Brewers at Diamondbacks
  • Divisional Series: Cubs vs. Nationals
  • Divisional Series: Wild-card winner vs. Dodgers

It’s a hairsbreadth of a margin, but right now the Brewers are just ahead of the Rockies for that second wild-card berth. Round things off, and we’d have a play-in game between those two clubs for the right to face the D-Backs. So rejoice, Milwaukee! As for the juggernaut Dodgers, they’re down to “just” 108 projected wins, as they’ve looked a bit mortal of late. The Nats, meantime, are edging their way toward 100 projected wins. 

(Enjoy this sort of thing? Get more of it at SportsLine.) 


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