News broke on Sunday evening that Florida State quarterback Deondre Francois will miss the rest of the season after suffering a patella tendon injury in a loss to Alabama on Saturday night. It’s a huge loss for the Seminoles as Francois had the potential to be one of the top quarterbacks in the country this year.

But how much of an impact will it have on the rest of the Seminoles’ season?

According to SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh, a major impact.

Before Francois’ injury, and prior to the start of the season, Oh’s projections had Florida State as the most likely team to win the ACC this season with the Noles winning the conference in over 39 percent of simulations.

Florida State

9.2

2.8

39.4 percent

Clemson

9.1

2.9

23.4 percent

Louisville

9.2

2.8

15.0 percent

Virginia Tech

8.4

3.6

8.0 percent

Pittsburgh

8.1

3.9

6.4 percent

Miami

8.3

3.7

5.5 percent

Following the injury, Florida State’s chances are down to 7.8 percent, according to the projections. There are four teams in the ACC winning the league more often in the simulations now: Clemson, Louisville, Virginia Tech and Miami, which jumped into the top five after its season-opening victory and Pitt’s loss.

Clemson

9.3

2.7

36.7 percent

+13.3 percent

Louisville

9.5

2.5

29.0 percent

+14.0 percent

Virginia Tech

8.4

3.6

8.3 percent

+0.3 percent

Miami

8.5

3.5

7.9 percent

+2.4 percent

Florida State

7.2

4.8

7.8 percent

-31.6 percent

None of this is to say that Florida State’s season is over or that its hopes of winning the ACC and maybe playing in the College Football Playoff are crushed. It’s just a lot less likely to happen than it was on Saturday afternoon.


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